\begin{thebibliography}{10}
\expandafter\ifx\csname url\endcsname\relax
  \def\url#1{\texttt{#1}}\fi
\expandafter\ifx\csname urlprefix\endcsname\relax\def\urlprefix{URL }\fi
\providecommand{\bibinfo}[2]{#2}
\providecommand{\eprint}[2][]{\url{#2}}

\bibitem{Kaga81}
\bibinfo{author}{Kagan, Y.~Y.} \& \bibinfo{author}{Knopoff, L.}
\newblock \bibinfo{title}{Stochastic synthesis of earthquake catalogs}.
\newblock \emph{\bibinfo{journal}{J. Geophys. Res.: Solid Earth}}
  \textbf{\bibinfo{volume}{86}}, \bibinfo{pages}{2853--2862}
  (\bibinfo{year}{1981}).

\bibitem{Ogat89}
\bibinfo{author}{Ogata, Y.}
\newblock \bibinfo{title}{Statistical model for standard seismicity and
  detection of anomalies by residual analysis}.
\newblock \emph{\bibinfo{journal}{Tectonophysics}}
  \textbf{\bibinfo{volume}{169}}, \bibinfo{pages}{159--174}
  (\bibinfo{year}{1989}).

\bibitem{Helm02}
\bibinfo{author}{Helmstetter, A.} \& \bibinfo{author}{Sornette, D.}
\newblock \bibinfo{title}{Subcritical and supercritical regimes in epidemic
  models of earthquake aftershocks}.
\newblock \emph{\bibinfo{journal}{J. Geophys. Res.: Solid Earth}}
  \textbf{\bibinfo{volume}{107}}, \bibinfo{pages}{2237} (\bibinfo{year}{2002}).

\bibitem{Cons03}
\bibinfo{author}{Console, R.}, \bibinfo{author}{Murru, M.} \&
  \bibinfo{author}{Lombardi, A.~M.}
\newblock \bibinfo{title}{Refining earthquake clustering models}.
\newblock \emph{\bibinfo{journal}{J. Geophys. Res.: Solid Earth}}
  \textbf{\bibinfo{volume}{108}} (\bibinfo{year}{2003}).

\bibitem{Zhua04}
\bibinfo{author}{Zhuang, J.}, \bibinfo{author}{Ogata, Y.} \&
  \bibinfo{author}{Vere-Jones, D.}
\newblock \bibinfo{title}{Analyzing earthquake clustering features by using
  stochastic reconstruction}.
\newblock \emph{\bibinfo{journal}{J. Geophys. Res.: Solid Earth}}
  \textbf{\bibinfo{volume}{109}} (\bibinfo{year}{2004}).

\bibitem{Zhua05}
\bibinfo{author}{Zhuang, J.}, \bibinfo{author}{Chang, C.-P.},
  \bibinfo{author}{Ogata, Y.} \& \bibinfo{author}{Chen, Y.-I.}
\newblock \bibinfo{title}{A study on the background and clustering seismicity
  in the taiwan region by using point process models}.
\newblock \emph{\bibinfo{journal}{J. Geophys. Res.: Solid Earth}}
  \textbf{\bibinfo{volume}{110}} (\bibinfo{year}{2005}).

\bibitem{Hain08}
\bibinfo{author}{Hainzl, S.} \& \bibinfo{author}{Marsan, D.}
\newblock \bibinfo{title}{Dependence of the omori-utsu law parameters on main
  shock magnitude: Observations and modeling}.
\newblock \emph{\bibinfo{journal}{J. Geophys. Res.: Solid Earth}}
  \textbf{\bibinfo{volume}{113}} (\bibinfo{year}{2008}).

\bibitem{Wern08}
\bibinfo{author}{Werner, M.~J.} \& \bibinfo{author}{Sornette, D.}
\newblock \bibinfo{title}{Magnitude uncertainties impact seismic rate
  estimates, forecasts, and predictability experiments}.
\newblock \emph{\bibinfo{journal}{J. Geophys. Res.: Solid Earth}}
  \textbf{\bibinfo{volume}{113}} (\bibinfo{year}{2008}).

\bibitem{Wan10}
\bibinfo{author}{Wang, Q.}, \bibinfo{author}{Schoenberg, F.~P.} \&
  \bibinfo{author}{Jackson, D.~D.}
\newblock \bibinfo{title}{Standard errors of parameter estimates in the etas
  model}.
\newblock \emph{\bibinfo{journal}{Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am.}}
  \textbf{\bibinfo{volume}{100}}, \bibinfo{pages}{1989--2001}
  (\bibinfo{year}{2010}).

\bibitem{Hain13}
\bibinfo{author}{Hainzl, S.}, \bibinfo{author}{Zakharova, O.} \&
  \bibinfo{author}{Marsan, D.}
\newblock \bibinfo{title}{Impact of aseismic transients on the estimation of
  aftershock productivity parameters}.
\newblock \emph{\bibinfo{journal}{Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am.}}
  \textbf{\bibinfo{volume}{103}}, \bibinfo{pages}{1723--1732}
  (\bibinfo{year}{2013}).

\bibitem{Helm03}
\bibinfo{author}{Helmstetter, A.}
\newblock \bibinfo{title}{Is earthquake triggering driven by small
  earthquakes?}
\newblock \emph{\bibinfo{journal}{Phys. Rev. Lett.}}
  \textbf{\bibinfo{volume}{91}}, \bibinfo{pages}{058501}
  (\bibinfo{year}{2003}).

\bibitem{Zhua02}
\bibinfo{author}{Zhuang, J.}, \bibinfo{author}{Ogata, Y.} \&
  \bibinfo{author}{Vere-Jones, D.}
\newblock \bibinfo{title}{Stochastic declustering of space-time earthquake
  occurrences}.
\newblock \emph{\bibinfo{journal}{J. Am. Stat. Ass.}}
  \textbf{\bibinfo{volume}{97}}, \bibinfo{pages}{369--380}
  (\bibinfo{year}{2002}).

\bibitem{Mars08}
\bibinfo{author}{Marsan, D.} \& \bibinfo{author}{Lenglin{\'e}, O.}
\newblock \bibinfo{title}{Extending earthquakes{\textquoteright} reach through
  cascading}.
\newblock \emph{\bibinfo{journal}{Science}} \textbf{\bibinfo{volume}{319}},
  \bibinfo{pages}{1076--1079} (\bibinfo{year}{2008}).

\bibitem{zali08}
\bibinfo{author}{Zaliapin, I.}, \bibinfo{author}{Gabrielov, A.},
  \bibinfo{author}{Keilis-Borok, V.} \& \bibinfo{author}{Wong, H.}
\newblock \bibinfo{title}{Clustering analysis of seismicity and aftershock
  identification}.
\newblock \emph{\bibinfo{journal}{Phys. Rev. Lett.}}
  \textbf{\bibinfo{volume}{101}}, \bibinfo{pages}{018501}
  (\bibinfo{year}{2008}).

\bibitem{zali13}
\bibinfo{author}{Zaliapin, I.} \& \bibinfo{author}{Ben-Zion, Y.}
\newblock \bibinfo{title}{Earthquake clusters in southern california i:
  Identification and stability}.
\newblock \emph{\bibinfo{journal}{J. Geophys. Res.: Solid Earth}}
  \textbf{\bibinfo{volume}{118}}, \bibinfo{pages}{2847--2864}
  (\bibinfo{year}{2013}).

\bibitem{Baie04}
\bibinfo{author}{Baiesi, M.} \& \bibinfo{author}{Paczuski, M.}
\newblock \bibinfo{title}{Scale-free networks of earthquakes and aftershocks}.
\newblock \emph{\bibinfo{journal}{Phys. Rev. E}} \textbf{\bibinfo{volume}{69}},
  \bibinfo{pages}{066106} (\bibinfo{year}{2004}).

\bibitem{Mars17}
\bibinfo{author}{Marsan, D.} \& \bibinfo{author}{Helmstetter, A.}
\newblock \bibinfo{title}{Single-link cluster analysis as a method to evaluate
  spatial and temporal properties of earthquake catalogues}.
\newblock \emph{\bibinfo{journal}{J. Geophys. Res.: Solid Earth}}
  \textbf{\bibinfo{volume}{122}}, \bibinfo{pages}{5544--5560}
  (\bibinfo{year}{2017}).

\bibitem{shb_Dokl2018}
\bibinfo{author}{Shebalin, P.~N.}, \bibinfo{author}{Baranov, S.~V.} \&
  \bibinfo{author}{Dzeboev, B.~A.}
\newblock \bibinfo{title}{The {{Law}} of the {{Repeatability}} of the
  {{Number}} of {{Aftershocks}}}.
\newblock \emph{\bibinfo{journal}{Dokl. Earth Sc.}}
  \textbf{\bibinfo{volume}{481}}, \bibinfo{pages}{963--966}
  (\bibinfo{year}{2018}).

\bibitem{bshFZ22017}
\bibinfo{author}{Baranov, S.~V.} \& \bibinfo{author}{Shebalin, P.~N.}
\newblock \bibinfo{title}{Forecasting aftershock activity: 2. {{Estimating}}
  the area prone to strong aftershocks}.
\newblock \emph{\bibinfo{journal}{Izv., Phys. Solid Earth}}
  \textbf{\bibinfo{volume}{53}}, \bibinfo{pages}{366--384}
  (\bibinfo{year}{2017}).

\bibitem{Utsu65}
\bibinfo{author}{Utsu, T.}
\newblock \bibinfo{title}{A method for determining the value of b in a formula
  {$log n = a - bM$} showing the magnitude-frequency relation for earthquakes
  (with {E}nglish summary)}.
\newblock \emph{\bibinfo{journal}{Geophys Bull. Hokkaido Univ.}}
  \textbf{\bibinfo{volume}{13}}, \bibinfo{pages}{99--103}
  (\bibinfo{year}{1965}).

\bibitem{Utsu70}
\bibinfo{author}{Utsu, T.}
\newblock \bibinfo{title}{Aftershocks and earthquake statistics (ii): Further
  investigation of aftershocks and other earthquake sequences based on a new
  classification of earthquake sequences}.
\newblock \emph{\bibinfo{journal}{J. Faculty Sci., Hokkaido University, Ser.
  VII (Geophys.)}} \textbf{\bibinfo{volume}{3}}, \bibinfo{pages}{197--266}
  (\bibinfo{year}{1970}).

\bibitem{Hols12}
\bibinfo{author}{Holschneider, M.}, \bibinfo{author}{Z\"oller, G.} \&
  \bibinfo{author}{Hainzl, S.}
\newblock \bibinfo{title}{Estimation of the maximum possible magnitude in the
  framework of the doubly-truncated gutenberg-richter model}.
\newblock \emph{\bibinfo{journal}{Bull. Seimol. Soc. Am.}}
  \textbf{\bibinfo{volume}{112}}, \bibinfo{pages}{1649--1659}
  (\bibinfo{year}{2011}).
\newblock \bibinfo{note}{Doi: 10.1785/0120100289}.

\bibitem{bshFZ42019}
\bibinfo{author}{Baranov, S.~V.}, \bibinfo{author}{Pavlenko, V.~A.} \&
  \bibinfo{author}{Shebalin, P.~N.}
\newblock \bibinfo{title}{Forecasting {{Aftershock Activity}}: 4.
  {{Estimating}} the {{Maximum Magnitude}} of {{Future Aftershocks}}}.
\newblock \emph{\bibinfo{journal}{Izv., Phys. Solid Earth}}
  \textbf{\bibinfo{volume}{55}}, \bibinfo{pages}{548--562}
  (\bibinfo{year}{2019}).

\bibitem{shbFZ52019}
\bibinfo{author}{Shebalin, P.~N.} \& \bibinfo{author}{Baranov, S.~V.}
\newblock \bibinfo{title}{Forecasting {{Aftershock Activity}}: 5.
  {{Estimating}} the {{Duration}} of a {{Hazardous Period}}}.
\newblock \emph{\bibinfo{journal}{Izv., Phys. Solid Earth}}
  \textbf{\bibinfo{volume}{55}}, \bibinfo{pages}{719--732}
  (\bibinfo{year}{2019}).

\end{thebibliography}
