[31]  From what was said we can conclude that prediction of the state of near-Earth space is now possible and is sufficiently exact. At the first stage, one-two days beforehand, using observations of emerging new magnetic fluxes, we predict the time interval in which, with a probability not less than 90%, large flare events will take place; their probable geoefficiency in all three space weather positions is estimated. At the second stage, during or immediately after a flare event, the prediction is updated using electromagnetic radiation as well as CME and (1) the probability of the arrival of solar high-energy particles (solar proton event) to near-Earth space, their probable maximum fluxes and duration are given (prognostic interval from 1 to 6 hours, prediction probability is about 70%); (2) the probability of a geomagnetic disturbance, its probable intensity, and duration as well as parameters of a probable ionospheric disturbance and aurora are assessed (prognostic interval from 17 hours to 5 days, probability of the forecast is not lower than 70%).

[32]  The third stage consists in refinement of the prediction of the geomagnetic disturbance intensity and duration involving the parameters of structures in the perturbed solar wind using SOHO data (stationary orbit at 1.5 million kilometers from the Earth). Approximately 40 min before its beginning, it is concluded whether the geomagnetic disturbance will reach the level of a magnetic storm; its magnitude, intensity, and duration are predicted (prediction probability is not lower than 80%).

[33]  At present the technique of prediction of large geoeffective solar flare events from observations of emerging new magnetic fluxes has passed a successful check by the operation of the Russian research satellites GRANAT, GAMMA, CORONAS-I, and CORONAS-F; this technique is successfully applied to realistic practical tasks.


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