Prediction of Geoeffective Solar Phenomena and the State of Near-Earth Space

[25]  Here we mean for the prediction of geoeffective solar phenomena a combination of all kinds of forecasts aiming to the calculation of the development of processes and phenomena taking place in the solar atmosphere and directly influencing the magnetic and radiation conditions in near-Earth space in the given time intervals. Time intervals for which the forecast is possible are determined by the characteristics of physical processes of emergence of new magnetic fluxes in the solar atmosphere, the character of their interaction with the already present magnetic field as well as regularities in the appearance and evolution of solar structures, such as solar flare events and coronal holes. The prediction of disturbances in near-Earth space directly depends on a successful, reliable forecast of solar geoeffective phenomena, such as large flare events and coronal holes. The observational data for the determination of the evolutionary and flare state of the Sun are stored at http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/Data/.

  1. Daily characteristics of solar activity: solar activity indices W, F10cm, Xmp; these data allow us to determine the phase of the current solar cycle and to estimate indirectly the flare activity level.

  2. Heliographic coordinates of all sunspot groups; the shape, area, extension, and their evolutionary characteristics. These data yield the localization, dynamics of development, and information on the appearance of new EMF in individual active regions; together with the data about the previous revolution, this enables us to predict their flare activity for the subsequent period.

  3. Daily data about solar flare events: heliographic coordinates of all significant flares, their localization and time characteristics, optical and X-ray importance, total flux of the burst in soft X rays, parameters of the radio bursts, and the presence of an ejection in the flare, coordinates, time, and sizes of solar filament eruptions. The localization and basic parameters of flare events allow us to implement diagnostics of the geoefficiency of a flare and to estimate the possibility of arrival of a disturbance and of solar particles to the Earth.

  4. Information on coronal mass ejections accompanying flare events allows us to specify the possibility of arrival of a disturbance and of solar particles to the Earth.

  5. Information about low-latitude coronal holes: their localization, area, sign of the magnetic field in which it was formed, dynamics and position of the IMF sector. This information enables us to trace the phenomena determining the successful prediction of the recurrent geomagnetic activity.

[26]  The observational data on the interplanetary medium are presented on the Web page http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/Data/.

  1. Data from the ACE satellite on the solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field with a 1-min and 5-min time resolution, with 2-, 6-, and 24-h samples and with a 1-h time resolution for 3- and 7-day samples (http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ace/).

  2. Proton fluxes at the geostationary orbit with a 5-min resolution, GOES spacecraft (http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ace/).

  3. Electron fluxes at the geostationary orbit with a 5-min resolution, GOES spacecraft (http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ace/).

[27]  Indices and observational data on the geomagnetic field (http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ace/):

  1. A - and K -indices of all geomagnetic observatories for 30 days.

  2. A - and K -indices in real time from Fredericksburg and College Geomagnetic Observatories as well as the preliminary planetary Ap -index for the Western Hemisphere.

  3. Data of the magnetometer on the GOES geostationary satellite with a 1-min time resolution.

  4. Hour and diurnal reviews(views) of the magnetometric data.

  5. Data from the POES satellite on energetic particles of the Earth's radiation belts. The generalized picture of space weather in real time is presented on the page http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/today.html.

[28]  A brief description for all interested in space weather is given on the Web page http://www.spaceweather.com, on which short articles on phenomena in NES, conditions of the observations of planets, comets, and meteor showers are published. The information on near-Earth asteroids and many other interesting articles on aurora, atmospheric phenomena, etc. are also published. The prediction of solar flare events on the basis of the analysis of emerging magnetic fluxes in active regions is implemented only in the Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere, and Radiowave Propagation, Russian Academy of Sciences, since 1990. It is accessible to public within the framework of the weekly review of the state of near-Earth space, which appears on Mondays since 1997 at http://www.izmiran.rssi.ru/space/solar/forecast (Russian version) and http://titan.wdcb.ru/virbo_rus/viewlast.do?Section=RBBulletin (English version). In the case of appearance in an active region of a new magnetic flux with a magnitude and ascent rate sufficient for the implementation of large flares, the Web page gives an appendix, in which the probable flare potential of the given active region is estimated.

[29]  The situation on the Sun in a daily mode and attempts of warning about flare events are given on the following Web pages: of the Big Bear Observatory, USA:

[30]  The prediction of space weather (geomagnetic field) invoking mainly solar-wind parameters from the data of the ACE (Advanced Composition Explorer) spacecraft located at the L1 libration point (this enables to forecast geomagnetic disturbances approximately 40 min prior to their beginning). The main ones are Space Weather Prediction Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (SWPC, NOAA, USA) (http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/alerts/index.html) and Naval Research Laboratory (USA) (http://ppdweb.nrl.navy.mil/whatsnew/prediction/).

RJES

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