[25] Here we mean for the prediction of geoeffective solar phenomena a combination of all kinds of forecasts aiming to the calculation of the development of processes and phenomena taking place in the solar atmosphere and directly influencing the magnetic and radiation conditions in near-Earth space in the given time intervals. Time intervals for which the forecast is possible are determined by the characteristics of physical processes of emergence of new magnetic fluxes in the solar atmosphere, the character of their interaction with the already present magnetic field as well as regularities in the appearance and evolution of solar structures, such as solar flare events and coronal holes. The prediction of disturbances in near-Earth space directly depends on a successful, reliable forecast of solar geoeffective phenomena, such as large flare events and coronal holes. The observational data for the determination of the evolutionary and flare state of the Sun are stored at http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/Data/.
[26] The observational data on the interplanetary medium are presented on the Web page http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/Data/.
[27] Indices and observational data on the geomagnetic field (http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ace/):
[28] A brief description for all interested in space weather is given on the Web page http://www.spaceweather.com, on which short articles on phenomena in NES, conditions of the observations of planets, comets, and meteor showers are published. The information on near-Earth asteroids and many other interesting articles on aurora, atmospheric phenomena, etc. are also published. The prediction of solar flare events on the basis of the analysis of emerging magnetic fluxes in active regions is implemented only in the Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere, and Radiowave Propagation, Russian Academy of Sciences, since 1990. It is accessible to public within the framework of the weekly review of the state of near-Earth space, which appears on Mondays since 1997 at http://www.izmiran.rssi.ru/space/solar/forecast (Russian version) and http://titan.wdcb.ru/virbo_rus/viewlast.do?Section=RBBulletin (English version). In the case of appearance in an active region of a new magnetic flux with a magnitude and ascent rate sufficient for the implementation of large flares, the Web page gives an appendix, in which the probable flare potential of the given active region is estimated.
[29] The situation on the Sun in a daily mode and attempts of warning about flare events are given on the following Web pages: of the Big Bear Observatory, USA:
[30] The prediction of space weather (geomagnetic field) invoking mainly solar-wind parameters from the data of the ACE (Advanced Composition Explorer) spacecraft located at the L1 libration point (this enables to forecast geomagnetic disturbances approximately 40 min prior to their beginning). The main ones are Space Weather Prediction Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (SWPC, NOAA, USA) (http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/alerts/index.html) and Naval Research Laboratory (USA) (http://ppdweb.nrl.navy.mil/whatsnew/prediction/).
Powered by TeXWeb (Win32, v.2.0).