[10] The solar studies of the last decade have left no doubt that geoeffective phenomena on the Sun that completely determine the state of near-Earth space are extremely large flare events and coronal holes. The class of flare phenomena includes:
[11] Solar flares take place in active regions with sunspot groups and without them; they represent a response of the solar atmosphere to a fast energy release, which results in a sharp local heating of all layers of the solar atmosphere accompanied by generation of powerful radiation in a broad band of the electromagnetic spectrum, from g-ray quanta to kilometer radio waves as well as by flows of electrons, protons, and heavy nuclei. Solar filaments are clouds of dense and cooler (than the surrounding medium) plasma, which take in the magnetic field of the solar atmosphere the form of structures extended along the polarity reversal line. The mean sizes of solar filaments: length is 50 megameters (Mm), width is several megameters, and height above the visible surface of the Sun (photosphere) is 10 Mm. Solar filament eruptions observed with a high resolution have an appearance of a two-ribbon flare with a slowly growing intensity before the maximum ( > 1 hour) and a long timescale of the intensity decline ( > 3 hours). In the great majority of cases the phenomenon takes place outside active regions, in weak magnetic fields ( < 50 G)
|
| Figure 3 |
|
| Figure 4 |
M7; in the
optical range their importance can reach the highest values, 4N.
Long-lived flares in sunspot groups differ by maximum energy
output in all ranges. Flares arising in the strongest magnetic
fields ( > 2000 G) are always impulsive ones; they are well
visible in hard X rays and
g rays up to the highest
energies; however, their X-ray importance does not reach M5, and
the optical importance does not exceed 1B.
[14] Using the observations of emerging magnetic fluxes (EMF), we can summarize phenomena after which the flare activity increases [Ishkov, 1998]:
[15] The time interval in which the major part of large- and
medium-importance flares is implemented in an active region is
called period of flare energy release. Depending on the degree of
development of an active region, characteristics of its magnetic
field, and power of the new EMF, this period can take from 16 to
80 hours, on the average 55
30 hours, or 16% of the transit
time of an active region across the visible solar disk [Ishkov, 1998].
These tags allow us to predict the period of flare energy
release one-two days before the occurrence of large geoeffective
solar flares.
[16] The prediction of solar filament eruptions is more difficult: only direct observations of an EMF in weak magnetic fields can give a possibility to predict them. EMF interacts with the background magnetic field and can emerge only to regions of the neutral line of the axial magnetic-field component.
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| Figure 5 |
/day, changing its sizes or moving it as a whole.
Low-latitude coronal holes are considered as sources of recurrent
magnetic storms and of flows of energetic ( > 2 MeV) electrons.
Geoeffective coronal holes are those found in a heliolatitude
interval of N25-S25, having a heliolatitude extension of
10
, area of
5000 msh [Joselyn, 1986], and
localized in enhanced background magnetic fields. The effect on
the near-Earth space appears when the western boundary of the
coronal hole reaches a heliolongitude of ~W40, ~3 days
after the transit of the western boundary of the coronal hole
across the central meridian of the Sun [Watari, 1990;
Solodyna et al., 1977]. We should
especially emphasize the role of a coronal hole as an enhancer of
the geoefficiency of solar flare phenomena. The presence of a
coronal hole near active regions where a solar flare event takes
place sharply increases their geoefficiency and expands the range
of their localization. An example is the event of April 14, 1994,
when an eruption of a high-latitude (S50) filament located
beneath a large coronal hole resulted in a complete modification
of magnetic structures in the southern hemisphere of the Sun
[McAllister et al., 1995] and in a major magnetic storm of 17 April 1994.
[18] The electromagnetic disturbances from flare events appear virtually at the instant of the process development; corpuscular and plasma disturbances from solar geoeffective phenomena (flare events, coronal holes) propagating in the heliosphere, through the solar wind, affect the magnetospheres of planets, their satellites, and comets, causing considerable deviations from the background quiet state in nearly all layers of the considered objects. The agents causing this disturbance are:

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