Study of the ocean response to climate changes in XX–XXII centuries, simulated with the coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model

N. A. Diansky, and E. M. Volodin

Institute of numeric mathematics of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia


[1]  Results of experiments with coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model, developed in the Institute of Numeric Mathematics (INM) of RAS, for the forecast of possible climate change in XX–XXII centuries according to three IPCC scenarios of changes in concentrations of greenhouse and other gases in the atmosphere, are considered. These experiments were carried out within the framework of international project on recent climate simulation and forecast of climate variations with the help of coupled models (so called IPCC model). Above mentioned international project was initiated by WCCRP (see 4th IPCC report, 2007). Comparison of the major parameters shows that climate variations, obtained on INM model, are close to average according to IPCC models. The INM model gives correct simulation of the value of rise in near-the-surface air temperature in the XX century, as well as of such features of observed climate change as temperature rise in 1940-1950 and slowing down of temperature rise in 1960-1970. According to the model, value of the rise in the global average near-the-surface temperature in XXII century as compared to the end of XX century will be 2 K under the most moderate scenario and 5 K under the warmest scenario. Results of the INM model obtained for all scenarios show that complete or almost complete melting of the sea ice in the Arctic will occur in the XXII century at the end of summer time. According to the model, the corresponding rise in the ocean water level will come to 20-45 cm by 2200 as compared with the end of the XX century. Analysis of the change of the ocean circulation simulated in the INM coupled model, showed that under general climate warming the global meridional heat transfer from low to high latitudes will weaken. It is shown that a spatial structure of a response in the meridional heat transfer is formed by dynamic factors - changes in the meridional circulation. Changes of this circulation in the upper layer of the ocean are reflected in all features of changes of the meridional distribution of heat transfer. Under these conditions, response in the meridional circulation in the Atlantic sufficiently differs from response in the Indo-Pacific.

Received 12 February 2008; accepted 4 March 2008; published 21 March 2008.

Keywords: climate changes, ocean response, atmosphere-ocean general circulation model, forecast of climate variations.

Index Terms: 1610 Global Change: Atmosphere; 3339 Atmospheric Processes: Ocean/atmosphere interactions; 3339 Atmospheric Processes: Ocean/atmosphere interactions; 3367 Atmospheric Processes: Theoretical modeling.


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