RUSSIAN JOURNAL OF EARTH SCIENCES VOL. 9, ES2003, doi:10.2205/2007ES000273, 2007
[81] 1. The new Sustainable Development Gauging Matrix (SDGM) was developed and argued. SDGM as a system analysis model uses mathematical formulas to integrate a large number of indices and metrics measuring the sustainable development of countries. This interdisciplinary model seeks to integrate economic, ecological, and social/institutional factors. All three areas should be developed in harmony in order for a country to have "sustainable development".
[82] 2. The model takes into account reports from well known international organizations and institutions, including the United Nations, the World Economic Forum, Heritage Foundation, Economist Intelligence Unit, Transparency International, Yale University working group on the environment and others. This model allows carrying out the global simulation of sustainable development processes for different specific applications.
[83] 3. Based on the analysis of data pertaining to global conflicts taking place from 705 B.C. till now, the regularity of their occurrence is determined. It is shown that a sequence of life cycles of system world conflicts is subordinate to the law of the Fibonacci series, and the intensity of these conflicts, depending on a level of technological evolution of the society, builds up under the hyperbolic law. By using the determined regularity we attempt to foresee the upcoming world conflict, called "the conflict of XXI century", and analyze its nature and the principal characteristics - duration, main phases of its flow and intensity.
[84] 4. We analyze a set of basic global threats that generate "the conflict of XXI century", and by using the cluster analysis identify the impact of these threats on different countries of the world. The examples of the threats to the future of the planet identified by the model are: population growth rates in less developed countries, the spread of HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, corruption, CO2 emissions, and projected shortfalls in the production of energy resources, such as oil, gas, and uranium. The model also analyzes the periodicity of conflicts, and presents a model for predicting future conflicts. Then, a number of possible scenarios are built regarding the world community evolution during and after the specified system conflict.
[85] 5. In such a way the created mathematical model has political implications and could become a method for politicians to measure their country's progress. The model can serve as the basis for providing informed and accurate analysis to politicians for developing some recommendations regarding the ways of improving the standards of quality and safety of life in particular countries and regions of the world by the global computer simulation of sustainable development and security of world population.
Citation: 2007), Sustainable development global simulation: Opportunities and treats to the planet, Russ. J. Earth Sci., 9, ES2003, doi:10.2205/2007ES000273.
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