RUSSIAN JOURNAL OF EARTH SCIENCES VOL. 10, ES2005, doi:10.2205/2007ES000251, 2008

Prediction of extreme events: Fundamentals and prerequisites of verification

V. G. Kossobokov1, 2, and A. A. Soloviev1

1International Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia
2Institute de Physique du Globe de Paris, Paris, France


[1]  In many cases extreme events of different nature induce catastrophic consequences. Therefore, in each case prediction of them is a long-living challenging problem of extremely high stakes. With a break-through in informatics many data relevant to catastrophic extremes became available for intensive search and testing of empirical "precursors'', as well as of conceptual hypotheses, thus, creating a fertile land for pattern recognition technique. Here we present the results of application of the same, perhaps, the simplest methodology to geophysical and socio-economical systems. Specifically, we (i) demonstrate the achievements of the on-going global monitoring of seismic activity aimed at prediction of the great and major earthquakes worldwide, which accommodates more than 15 years of real-time experience, and (ii) describe in more detail the quantitative experimentation in finding precursors of starts and ends of economic recessions, episodes of a sharp increase in the unemployment rate, and surges of homicides in a mega-city.

Received 28 January 2008; accepted 9 February 2008; published 29 February 2008.

Keywords: seismology, earthquake prediction, model and theoretical seismicity.

Index Terms: 0500 Computational Geophysics; 1721 History of Geophysics: Nonlinear geophysics; 7223 Seismology: Earthquake interaction, forecasting, and prediction; 7290 Seismology: Computational seismology.


Citation: Kossobokov, V. G., and A. A. Soloviev (2008), Prediction of extreme events: Fundamentals and prerequisites of verification, Russ. J. Earth Sci., 10, ES2005, doi:10.2205/2007ES000251.

Copyright 2008 by the Russian Journal of Earth Sciences
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