Russian Journal of Earth Sciences
Vol 1, No. 4, June 1999
Map of expected earthquakes algorithm and RTL
prognostic parameter: Joint application
G. A. Sobolev, A. D. Zavyalov, and Yu. S. Tyupkin
Abstract
The estimation of the seismically dangerous zones of Kamchatka
and Greece for the nearest years is given in this report on the basis
of joint application of MEE (Map of expected earthquakes)
algorithm and of RTL prognostic parameter.
MEE algorithm is based
on the analysis of such precursors as
b -value, density of seismogenic faults,
number of weak earthquakes, released seismic
energy and is used for intermediate-term prediction of
M > 5.5 earthquakes.
Many year's statistics of using MEE algorithm in various seismically
active areas show that up to 80% of
M > 5.5 earthquakes
occur in the zones selected by this algorithm with the
P(D1|K) =70%
conditional probability. The square of the selected zones is no more
than 30-35% of the analyzed seismically active area.
On the
other hand the algorithm RTL is based on detecting of seismic quiescence
and foreshock activation and is used for intermediate-term prediction
of strong earthquake ( M > 7). Joint application of these
two algorithms allows making a prediction of strong earthquakes more reliable.