RUSSIAN JOURNAL OF EARTH SCIENCES VOL. 1, NO. 4, PAGES 301–309, doi:10.2205/1999ES000017, 1999

Map of expected earthquakes algorithm and RTL prognostic parameter: Joint application

G. A. Sobolev, and A. D. Zavyalov

Schmidt United Institute of Physics of the Earth, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia

Yu. S. Tyupkin

National Geophysical Committee of Russian Federation, Moscow, Russia


[1]  The estimation of the seismically dangerous zones of Kamchatka and Greece for the nearest years is given in this report on the basis of joint application of MEE (Map of expected earthquakes) algorithm and of RTL prognostic parameter. MEE algorithm is based on the analysis of such precursors as b -value, density of seismogenic faults, number of weak earthquakes, released seismic energy and is used for intermediate-term prediction of M > 5.5 earthquakes. Many year's statistics of using MEE algorithm in various seismically active areas show that up to 80% of M > 5.5 earthquakes occur in the zones selected by this algorithm with the P(D1|K) =70% conditional probability. The square of the selected zones is no more than 30-35% of the analyzed seismically active area. On the other hand the algorithm RTL is based on detecting of seismic quiescence and foreshock activation and is used for intermediate-term prediction of strong earthquake ( M > 7). Joint application of these two algorithms allows making a prediction of strong earthquakes more reliable.

Received 15 April 1999; published 20 June 1999.

Keywords: RTL prognostic parameter, expected earthquakes, seismically dangerous zones, seismic precursors.

Citation: Sobolev, G. A., A. D. Zavyalov, and Yu. S. Tyupkin (1999), Map of expected earthquakes algorithm and RTL prognostic parameter: Joint application, Russ. J. Earth Sci., 1, No.4, 301-309, doi:10.2205/1999ES000017.

Version of this paper in Russian

Copyright 1999 by the Russian Journal of Earth Sciences
Powered by TeXWeb (Win32, v.2.0).