Solar geoeffective phenomena: Impact on the near-Earth space and the opportunity to forecast

Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere, and Radiowave Propagation, Russian Academy of Sciences, Troitsk, Moscow Region, Russia

Abstract

[1]  The solar research of the last decade has left no doubt that geoeffective phenomena on the Sun, which dynamically affect the state of near-Earth space (NES) are extremely large flare events and coronal holes. We attribute to the class of flare phenomena solar flares with a complete spectrum of dynamic manifestations of the mass motion and radiation in all ranges of the electromagnetic spectrum as well as solar filament eruptions with all accompanying phenomena. The possibility to predict geoeffective solar phenomena and their effects on NES is based on the analysis of correlations: emergence of new magnetic fluxes in the solar atmosphere, their physical characteristics, and the character of their interaction with the already present magnetic field; time distribution of large flares within active regions; temporal and spatial distribution of solar filament eruptions; formation, distribution, and evolution of solar coronal holes (CH). The agents causing NES disturbances are transient structures: coronal mass ejections, which result from active processes in flares and filament eruptions; high-speed flows of solar plasma following a shock wave from large solar flares and solar filament eruptions or outflowing from regions with an open magnetic configuration. Prediction for the beginning of NES disturbances and of their duration is possible for a period from 1 to 5 days and for coronal holes for a period of one solar revolution (27.3 days). This makes possible planning various technological, biological, and medical experiments together with protective measures for the team and instruments of space laboratories.

Received 22 November 2007; accepted 7 April 2008; published 23 April 2008.

Keywords: Solar geoeffective phenomena, near-Earth space, forecasting, cyclicity of solar activity.

Index Terms: 7536 Solar Physics, Astrophysics, and Astronomy: Solar activity cycle; 7899 Space Plasma Physics: General or miscellaneous; 7974 Space Weather: Solar effects; 7984 Space Weather: Space radiation environment.

Citation: Ishkov, V. N. (2008), Solar geoeffective phenomena: Impact on the near-Earth space and the opportunity to forecast, Russ. J. Earth Sci., 10, ES3005, doi:10.2205/2007ES000247.