### The dynamics of the stress state in Southern California based on the geomechanical model and current seismicity: Short term earthquake prediction

V. G. Bondur, I. A. Garagash, M. B. Gokhbergdoi:10.2205/2017ES000596

Abstract. The three-dimensional geomechanical model of Southern California was developed including a mountain relief, fault tectonics and internal border characteristics such as the roof of the consolidated crust and Moho surface. During the last six years on the basis of the developed geomechanical model and current seismicity is realized an approbation of technology for the estimation of possible future seismicity on a two weeks interval. All four strongest events with $M \sim 5.5-7.2$ occurred in South California during the analyzed period were prefaced by the stress anomalies in peculiar advance time of weeks-months. Inside the stress state background level investigation it was identified the feature of the large-scale interaction between two seismically active tectonic provinces of Southern California.

Received 20 January 2017; accepted 20 January 2017; published 3 February 2017.